“Whenever I hear someone say sustainable tourism now, I’m immediately very sceptical. Alarm bells start ringing. I want to know what they mean by it, because I just feel like it doesn’t really mean anything anymore,” says Dr Michael Palkowski.

Palkowski, a senior lecturer at the University of East London, says that overtourism goes far beyond empirical data–it’s a complex psychological and emotional phenomenon.

The psychology behind overtourism

“So overtourism as a term relates typically to destinations that are experiencing excessive amounts of tourism, and it's usually understood in a very quantifiable, quantitative type of measurement in people's heads, they tend to think of numbers, and they tend to think of capacity,” Palkowski explains. But this surface-level understanding overlooks the deeper complexity of the issue.

Drawing from the Club of Rome's 1972 "Limits to Growth" report, which famously suggests that the earth's resources can’t support present economic and population growth rates, Palkowski traces how the concept of carrying capacity started to emerge. Yet his definition is much more nuanced. “In that sense, it’s a very quantifiable idea, but it’s also something more in the sense that it’s very psychological, and sort of perceptive and emotive,” he explains. It combines excessive numbers and a psychological feeling of “too much.”

The psychological element is not always glaringly obvious. “Certain destinations will feel like there's too much tourism in terms of numbers, even if the numbers are not verifiably big,” Palkowski notes. This perception problem highlights how overtourism isn’t just about objective thresholds but about residents' lived experiences watching their neighbourhoods transform.

Palkowski, an Edinburgh-native, has witnessed firsthand how tourism can alter a city’s character. In August, the Edinburgh Festival Fringe transforms the entire city into what he describes as a “carnivalesque” atmosphere. Streets suddenly crowd with thousands of tourists. “During August, when you're walking around the city, it feels qualitatively different in terms of the time it takes to get where you want to get to, and the normal feel of the place,” he explains. The frustration became so palpable that locals began selling t-shirts with aggressive anti-tourist messages.

The dangerous “solutions”

But Palkowski’s most urgent concern isn’t overtourism itself. It’s the solutions being proposed to fix it. His latest research, co-authored with Dr Henrik Linden, serves as what he calls “a warning” about the dangerous precedents being set in destination management.

“Tourism destinations throughout the world, in response to overtourism, are enacting very punitive and regulatory types of control in a destination,” he explains. Venice has introduced a system that requires tourists to obtain QR codes for specific access at designated times. Other cities are implementing what he describes as “surveillance and border checkpoints” in public spaces.

“You’ve got this ongoing regulatory, surveillance-type management response that is overtaking our public spaces and making our public less liveable,” Palkowski says, clearly disturbed by the implications. “You don’t want to walk around your city, and checkpoints check to see that you’re eligible to be in that location.”

Even more troubling is the rhetoric accompanying these policies. He highlights campaigns like Miami Beach’s “Breaking Up With Spring Break” advertisements. Locals addressed tourists directly: “It’s not us, it’s you… Don’t try to apologise and come crawling back.” The messaging is accompanied by images of arrests and police activity, essentially telling visitors they’re unwelcome.

Amsterdam’s “Stay Away” campaign targeting 18–35-year-old British men was even more explicit. The videos featured images of a British man in jail with warnings about criminal records and life-changing consequences. The irony wasn’t lost on Palkowski: “I know that our entire branding and destination imaging for the past 50 years has been about weed and alcohol and as a party destination…yeah, we don’t want that anymore.”

The language, he argues, mirrors far-right rhetoric about immigration. “When we talk about immigrants in far-right populist discourse, they are described as invaders, bringing problems with them to the destination,” he notes. In the same way, destinations are now being marketed as “pristine” and “pure”, and the tourists are coming in, bringing the problems, and destroying the location.

Yet he observes a troubling double standard: “A lot of the people that promote this type of stuff, they would never accept this if we started saying that about immigrants. But as soon as it starts to be about tourists, they’re like, ‘Yeah. Tourists are the problem.”

Tourist taxes: revenue in disguise

Palkowski’s scepticism extends to the financial solutions being offered as overtourism remedies. Tourist taxes, also called visitor levies, are presented as funds for destination maintenance and investment, but they can sometimes serve a different purpose. Mexico’s newly implemented tourism tax on cruise ship passengers- proposed in March at $42 per person- was reduced to $5 but is set to rise to $27 by 2027, with passengers charged even if they don’t disembark.

“You think, okay, where’s that money going? Is it going to help the destination?” Palkowski queries. The answer reveals the disconnect between rhetoric and reality: two-thirds of the revenue goes directly to the Mexican military, specifically for the management of ports.

He sees these taxes as revenue-generating schemes disguised as environmental protection. “Governments and local authorities are cash-strapped and have recognised this is a nice way for us to raise additional revenue that we can use for whatever we want,” he explains. “It’s just another way of raising revenue.”

The term “Trojan horse” appears repeatedly in his analysis. These are solutions that promise one thing while delivering another. For Palkowski, this represents a fundamental betrayal of tourists and residents. This creates increasingly regulated public spaces while failing to address the root causes of overtourism. “They're not actually about doing what they say, and the rhetoric around it is concerning, and I think it's only going to get worse.”

A warning for the future

For Palkowski, this represents a troubling trajectory. Increasing visitor numbers combined with increasingly retaliatory policy responses, wrapped in the language of sustainability. His research suggests that without fundamental changes in destination management, the future of tourism may involve more surveillance, more hostile rhetoric, and more Trojan horse solutions.

As destinations worldwide grapple with the challenges of mass tourism, Palkowski's work suggests the answers lie not in disciplinary measures or surveillance systems. However, in understanding the complex psychological and social dynamics that turn a place from a home into a stage, His research serves as both an analysis and a warning. By rushing to solve overtourism, we risk creating something far worse than crowded streets.

England's largest lake is dying. A BBC investigation revealed that over 140 million litres of untreated sewage were illegally poured into Lake Windermere between 2021 and 2023. Not through industrial negligence, but because the Lake District's infrastructure cannot cope with the 18.11 million visitors who descend annually on the region.

Stretching over 17km and holding 300 billion litres of water, Lake Windermere sits at the heart of England's largest national park and UNESCO World Heritage Site. What should be a pristine showcase of natural beauty has become a casualty of its popularity. According to Save Windermere, United Utilities, the Lake District’s sewage and wastewater management company, discharged untreated sewage into Windermere for 6,327 hours in 2024 alone. That's equivalent to 264 days of continuous raw sewage flowing into England's most famous lake.

The impact is immediate and visceral. Despite being in Windermere, just a short walk from the lake's shores, a resident and ice cream shop worker advised against swimming in the waters that draw millions of visitors. “If you want to go swimming in one of the lakes, I'd recommend heading north to Ullswater instead,” she suggested. “Lake Windermere just isn't safe anymore.”

Implementing a tourist tax

With mounting environmental and social pressures, there's growing support for implementing a visitor levy. The concept of a visitor levy – a tax that could fund infrastructure improvements and conservation work – is gaining popularity among local authorities and conservation groups.

The reception to such proposals has been encouraging. Friends of the Lake District reports that: “the reaction has been overwhelmingly positive: we've had supportive responses in discussions with local people and visitors, as well as with local MPs and Councillors, with many expressly in favour of some form of levy. The National Park Authority has been open to listening to and participating in the debate.”

Research suggests visitors support such measures when revenue is directed toward destination improvement and conservation. A modest levy could generate significant funds for addressing the Lake District's infrastructure deficit.

Addressing concerns that such measures might harm the local economy, Friends of the Lake District points to international evidence: “There is evidence from places that have already introduced levies that a small charge on the cost of a trip does not deter visitors. Venice's visitor numbers went up following the introduction of a charge for day visitors, and in many parts of Europe, a fee is charged as standard. Adding less than a cup of coffee to a trip to the Lakes seems highly unlikely to put anyone off coming.”

But progress remains slow. At the local level, Friends of the Lake District notes: “there are no tangible policy proposals as yet, but we are aware of, and are contributing to, policy discussions within the Lake District National Park Partnership.” However, momentum is building nationally, with “various Mayors and heads of other National Parks and regions speaking out in ‘support of a visitor levy and for a change in the law to allow local authorities to levy an overnight stay tax.’”

Beyond funding mechanisms, the organisation envisions broader changes to regional tourism operations. “A visitor levy would help to bridge the gaps, as would stronger policies relating to transport,” they explain. “We’d like to see greater focus on tourism activities that enable people to genuinely understand, enjoy and experience the special qualities of Lake District (rather than it being used simply as a backdrop for activities that don’t achieve this and are largely unrelated to the landscape)  and for this to be in ways that create a mutually beneficial relationship between visitors and the landscape and the communities within it.”

One example they point out is the issue of developing a Zip World attraction, a zip wire tourist attraction, in Elterwater. Instead, “the quarry could be opened up for people to experience with someone from a family with quarry heritage as a guide.”

They also advocate for coordinated policy approaches: “Policies (and legislation) relating to second homes and holiday lets should also be strengthened – something we have sought for many years. Again, tourism policies should be linked with transport policies – better public transport would help residents and visitors and better protect the landscape.”

But the economics remain challenging. Tourism revenue of £2.304 billion makes the industry too crucial to the local economy to be restricted severely. The challenge lies in finding ways to reduce environmental impact without devastating the communities that depend on visitor spending. As the Lake District’s ecological crisis deepens, the challenge lies in whether radical change will come soon enough to preserve what millions come to see before the damage becomes irreversible.

Looking forward

So how is Bath expected to handle the converging factors that suggest growing tourist numbers ahead? For Kathryn Davis and Visit West, the answer lies in strategic management rather than visitor reduction.

Davis remains optimistic about Bath's tourism future, emphasising the city's appeal across multiple trends. “Our job is to make it resilient, so you don't have this seasonality. You squash some of those peaks and troughs,” Davis explains. Visit West is working on several campaigns to achieve this balance, focusing on spreading visitor flows more evenly throughout the year and encouraging longer stays in the city.

The day-tripper challenge remains central to Bath's strategy. Rather than eliminating these visits, Davis sees opportunity in conversion. “Day visits are still an important part of the mix, because you need them,” she notes. “This needs to run 365 days a year.” The goal is to transform brief visits into overnight stays, generating a more substantial economic impact for local businesses and communities.

The television influence shows no signs of waning either. With Bridgerton planned for five more seasons, Bath's screen appeal remains strong. Davis doesn't see the wellness trends falling out of favour either, as Bath is the only place in the UK where you can bathe in natural thermal waters. The Jane Austen appeal will also remain, with devoted Janeites continuing to celebrate the novelist with their period-themed celebrations.

Perhaps most significantly, Bath's future tourism prospects will be affected by the potential return of Asian markets. Davis explains that Chinese tourists, representing a significant portion of pre-pandemic international visitors, have been notably absent due to travel limitations. When Asian tourists return to the UK in pre-pandemic numbers, Bath could experience a substantial tourism boom, given the city's appeal to long-haul travellers seeking premium, culturally significant destinations.

The fundamental challenge remains balancing growth with liveability. “It's a living, working city with 90,000 people living in it,” Davis acknowledges. “We need to ensure that we maintain visitors and grow them where we can grow them, but not at the expense of the people who live here.”

For Bath, success will depend on maintaining what Davis calls “authenticity” while strategically managing the city's multiple tourism draws. From Roman heritage to Netflix fame to Michelin recognition. The city's tourism DNA, built over two millennia, suggests it has the foundation to handle these converging pressures. Whether it can do so while preserving the character that makes it attractive remains the defining question for Bath's tourism future.